Research
My research is in the political economy of violence and development — with work on political conflict (Peru’s insurgencies and community self-defense), political regimes and growth (Chile), and the institutions that underpin state and fiscal capacity, using applied econometrics and price theory.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Friends or Foes? The Insurgent’s Dilemma of Seeking Legitimacy While Keeping Secrets”
World Development, 2026
SSRN · PDF
Why do some rebel groups court public legitimacy while others stay hidden? I model the trade-off insurgents face between openness — which wins popular support, resources, and civilian collaboration — and secrecy, which shields the group from being targeted. The theory is tested against Peru’s Shining Path and Túpac Amaru movements (1980–2000).
¿Por qué algunos grupos rebeldes buscan legitimidad pública mientras otros permanecen ocultos? Modelo la disyuntiva que enfrentan los insurgentes entre la apertura —que atrae apoyo popular, recursos y colaboración civil— y el secreto, que protege al grupo de ser blanco de ataques. La teoría se contrasta con Sendero Luminoso y el MRTA en el Perú (1980–2000).
“A Self-Defense Network against Terrorism and Crime: Evidence from Peru”
Terrorism and Political Violence, 2023
Published version · PDF
Self-governance is often assumed not to scale beyond small groups. Yet hundreds of thousands of Peruvian peasants built a decentralized, multi-community network of patrols (rondas campesinas) that provided security with no central direction — a polycentric order that played a decisive role in defeating crime and terrorism between 1980 and 2000.
Suele suponerse que el autogobierno no puede escalar más allá de grupos pequeños. Sin embargo, cientos de miles de campesinos peruanos construyeron una red descentralizada y multicomunitaria de patrullas (rondas campesinas) que brindó seguridad sin dirección central —un orden policéntrico que fue decisivo para derrotar la delincuencia y el terrorismo entre 1980 y 2000.
“The Influence of Pinochet in the Chilean Miracle”
Latin American Research Review, 2022
Published version · PDF
Using a synthetic-control counterfactual, I find that Chilean income per capita underperformed comparable countries for at least fifteen years after Pinochet’s coup, and that the growth of 1985–1997 did not depend on his autocracy — challenging the popular narrative that credits the dictatorship with Chile’s economic “miracle.”
Mediante un contrafactual de control sintético, encuentro que el ingreso per cápita de Chile fue inferior al de países comparables durante al menos quince años tras el golpe de Pinochet, y que el crecimiento de 1985–1997 no dependió de su autocracia —cuestionando la narrativa popular que atribuye a la dictadura el “milagro” económico chileno.
“Night Watchers and Terrorists”
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2020
Published version · PDF
The peasant self-defense patrols that arose to fight the Shining Path adopted strikingly different internal structures — democratic in the north, hierarchical in the south. I develop an organizational theory showing how the severity and time horizon of the external threat shaped whether these extralegal groups organized horizontally or vertically.
Las patrullas campesinas de autodefensa que surgieron para combatir a Sendero Luminoso adoptaron estructuras internas muy distintas —democráticas en el norte, jerárquicas en el sur. Desarrollo una teoría organizacional que muestra cómo la severidad y el horizonte temporal de la amenaza externa determinaron si estos grupos extralegales se organizaban de forma horizontal o vertical.
“Fighting on Christmas: Brawling as Self-Governance in Rural Peru”
with Raymond March
Journal of Institutional Economics, 2020
Published version · PDF
The Andean Christmas ritual of Takanakuy — public, consensual brawling — works as a community mechanism for resolving disputes that Peru’s formal courts cannot or will not settle, sustaining cooperation and social order through locally accepted rules.
El ritual navideño andino del Takanakuy —peleas públicas y consentidas— funciona como un mecanismo comunitario para resolver disputas que los tribunales formales del Perú no pueden o no quieren atender, sosteniendo la cooperación y el orden social mediante reglas aceptadas localmente.
Book Chapters
“Por la Razón o la Fuerza: What Caused Chile’s Economic Miracle?”
in The Pinochet Shock: Radical Change and Life Under Dictatorship, Palgrave Macmillan, 2025
Book · Chapter
A chapter revisiting the sources of Chile’s economic transformation and asking how much of the country’s growth can be attributed to the Pinochet regime versus the market reforms of the period.
“A Government Role Conducive to Liberty: Operation Warp Speed”
with Peter C. Earle
in Pandemics and Liberty, American Institute for Economic Research, 2022
Book
A chapter examining Operation Warp Speed — the U.S. effort to accelerate COVID-19 vaccine development — as a case of a limited government role that can remain compatible with individual liberty.
Working Papers
“Resource Shocks and Local Regulatory Capacity: Evidence from Peru”
Examines how windfalls in natural-resource revenue affect the regulatory capacity of local governments in Peru.
“Co-Producing the State: Formal Recognition of Extralegal Governance and Fiscal Capacity”
Studies how the state’s formal recognition of pre-existing extralegal (community) governance shapes its fiscal capacity, drawing on evidence from Peru.